Within Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), discussion of a possible change in leadership is intensifying amid falling government support and grim forecasts ahead of two key state elections. Voting will take place on Sept. 20 in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin.
Merz's CDU risks suffering serious defeats, the outlet reported. After initial results are announced, the chancellor has called a meeting of party leadership, during which, according to Politico, he plans to gauge whether he retains the support of fellow party members and whether they remain willing to back his reform agenda.
The meeting is scheduled for 5 p.m. — roughly an hour before exit polls are released at 6 p.m. If Merz fails to secure the necessary support, he may offer to let party members choose a potential successor themselves.
Possible candidates for chancellor include North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Hendrik Wüst, Bavarian Premier and CSU leader Markus Söder, Hesse Premier Boris Rhein and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt. However, no single candidate currently commands sufficient support within the party.
At the same time, internal party pressure alone is not enough to force the chancellor's automatic resignation, the outlet noted. Germany's constitution provides the head of government with significant protections. Formally, a chancellor can only be removed through a constructive vote of no confidence — the Bundestag must not only express no confidence in the sitting head of government but simultaneously elect a successor by majority vote.
Given the current balance of power in parliament, such a scenario would be difficult to carry out, Politico reported.
Germany's regional elections
State elections were held on Sept. 6 in the eastern German region of Saxony-Anhalt, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won. The party also led pre-election polling in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the Saxony-Anhalt election result a "tectonic shift" in the country's party system and acknowledged that the CDU had suffered a "dramatic defeat."
In September, polling by the research group Forschungsgruppe Wahlen showed the far-right, pro-Russian Alternative for Germany (AfD) party leading pre-election polls in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, ahead of the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD). Elections in that state are scheduled for Sept. 20.
German outlet Focus reported that two new polls showed record growth in support for the AfD alongside declining numbers for the CDU/CSU bloc, which Merz leads.
The AfD polled at 30%, up 2 points — a record for the party. The CDU/CSU polled at 20%, down 3 points — a historic low for the alliance.
According to Bild, communications expert Philipp Jessen called the figures a turning point that he believes will lead to fundamental shifts in Germany's political landscape.
On Sept. 16, Merz canceled a planned trip to New York for the U.N. General Assembly, saying he would remain in Berlin amid rising tensions within the CDU he leads.