Berlin is exploring legislative tools to curb inflows, but it cannot take direct action until the European Union’s temporary protection mechanism for Ukrainians expires in March 2027, Honcharenko said. For now, the government can only encourage voluntary returns.
The administration of Chancellor Friedrich Merz has one realistic option — a long-term program offering financial and other incentives to Ukrainians willing to return home, Honcharenko said. Berlin could eventually apply a similar approach to draft-age men who left Ukraine, but only after the war ends.
“There are no grounds for deporting Ukrainian men from Germany,” he said. “Such a radical measure would require legal justification and a thorough review of each individual case. No one will be told to leave in the summer of 2026.”
Germany has already launched its first Ukrainian Unity Hub in Europe to encourage returns, with most funding provided by Berlin. Ukraine oversees operations through its National Unity Agency.
Ukraine has a strong interest in the return of its citizens, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said at the hub’s opening ceremony, while stressing the need to provide a “window of opportunity” for Ukrainians who have integrated and are working in Germany.
Specialists at the hub advise Ukrainians on pension services, ID cards, foreign passports, housing programs, and social benefits in both Ukraine and Germany. More than 300 people sought assistance during its first week of operation.
Germany is also tightening financial pressure. The Bundestag has approved scrapping Bürgergeld benefits, replacing them with a stricter Grundsicherung model starting on July 1. Payments can be reduced by 30% for three months if a refugee refuses a job offered by the state. Missing three appointments at a job center without valid reasons could result in a full suspension of benefits.
Economic and social trends suggest that not all Ukrainian refugees will remain in Germany, as staying will increasingly require stable employment, Honcharenko said.
“Few people will be willing to work outside their profession for long periods, especially in physically demanding jobs,” he said.