Shmyhal's low profile helps him remain Ukraine's PM despite frequent shake-ups

Shmyhal currently holds the third most important position in the state, after the president and the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces. However, according to sociological studies, Ukrainians do not see him as one of the country's most popular figures.

He is always among the key participants in important meetings with top representatives of partner states, yet his name is often mentioned by the media only in relation to technical matters.

Shmyhal set a record for the longest time in office for a Ukrainian prime minister, yet tabloids and opinion leaders on social media largely ignore him.

Denys Shmyhal, the "invisible man" who is constantly in the news but always in a secondary role, achieved what was previously unattainable in early March 2024—celebrating his fourth year as head of the government.

This is unprecedented in national political history: previously, the longest tenure for a prime minister was nearly four years by Mykola Azarov, and other officials of Shmyhal's rank have not even come close to such "longevity."

Shmyhal's extended career is even more surprising given the major personnel shake-ups that have rocked the government during President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's tenure. The sixth president has not hesitated to dismiss even old friends during his time in office.

There were even rumors in recent months that Shmyhal would soon be replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, who oversees the entire economic bloc of the government.

However, even when parliament, at the president's request, dismissed more than half of the existing ministers in early September, their direct boss remained in his office on the sixth floor of the grand Soviet-era building on Kyiv's Hrushevsky Street.

Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a member of the Voice faction in parliament who often interacts with government officials in his role as the first deputy head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax, and Customs Policy, is impressed by how skillfully Shmyhal manages to play his bureaucratic games.

"As a politician, I can't help but admire Shmyhal's ability to 'eliminate' his competitors," Zhelezniak told NV. He recalled that at different times, there were attempts to replace Shmyhal with former Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, Deputy Prime Minister and Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, former Community and Territory Development Minister Oleksii Chernyshov, Svyrydenko, former Economy Minister Oleksii Lyubchenko, and CEO of Naftogaz Yurii Vitrenko.

Some of these "candidates" are now out of the ruling elite, while others continue to work under the watch of the "immortal" Shmyhal.

If this isn't a miracle, then what else can be called a miracle?

A comfortable candidate

Shmyhal came to power along with Zelenskyy, but he did so at the regional level. In the summer of 2019, the new president appointed Shmyhal, a former top manager at DTEK, an energy holding owned by Rinat Akhmetov, as the head of the Ivano-Frankivsk Regional State Administration.

But by February 2020, Shmyhal was invited to join the government as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Community and Territory Development.

The then-Prime Minister Oleksii Honcharuk was among those who interviewed Shmyhal for the position.

"He was the best performer among the heads of regional state administrations," Honcharuk explained in an interview at the time. "We have experience working together for a few months, and it was very comfortable for me to work with him."

Shmyhal turned out to be comfortable not only for Honcharuk. Just three months after moving to Kyiv, Shmyhal replaced his former boss as head of the Cabinet of Ministers.

Four years have passed since then, and unlike Shmyhal, few remember Honcharuk.

A parliamentary friend

One of the key factors in Shmyhal's "resilience" is his good relationship with the Verkhovna Rada.

Several MPs from the president's Servant of the People (SN) faction told NV that Shmyhal has managed to establish good relations with parliamentarians.

One "servant" noted that Shmyhal is "more open to communication with MPs than some ministers." While top government officials may ignore calls, forget something, or make empty promises, the prime minister, they said, gets involved in practical issues for MPs, including those arising in their districts.

"Even during the first meeting of this renewed Cabinet, Shmyhal directly said: please respond to MPs, communicate with them—it's important," a source within the SN faction said.

Another source within the SN faction, who spoke anonymously, described Shmyhal's "communication skills" as one of his strongest attributes.

"He's calm, balanced, doesn't lose his temper, always keeps his word, and finds common ground with MPs, the Office of the President, and his ministers, who come from very diverse backgrounds," the MP explained. "Not losing his temper is important because everyone's exhausted, and emotions have become a big part of the job."

Zhelezniak also confirmed that Shmyhal has good relationships with many MPs and personally has a positive view of the prime minister.

In the power structure built by Zelenskyy, where all major decisions are made at Bankova Street, support from the Rada might not seem important. But it's different for the prime minister, since his appointment and dismissal require parliamentary approval. Right now, finding the votes for anything is a challenging task for the Office of the President (OP).

"I don't understand why we would replace the prime minister," said one member of Servant of the People. "He hasn't seriously messed up anywhere, unlike many other team members."

Moreover, there wasn't much enthusiasm for Svyrydenko as a potential candidate, despite her being pushed by OP head Andriy Yermak, according to NV sources. The Rada sees her as even more dependent on Bankova than Shmyhal.

A source in Zelenskyy's team acknowledged that Shmyhal's dismissal would have been difficult to push through parliament. Additionally, Shmyhal's candid conversation with the president played a role in his staying. According to the source's account: "The prime minister asked: 'Say 'yes' [we continue] or 'no,' because the government can't function properly—everyone's waiting.' The president responded: 'You're staying, assemble [a new] team.'"

One of the former ministers told NV anonymously that David Arakhamia, head of the SN faction, played a role in Shmyhal's "happy ending," having "defended" the incumbent prime minister.

However, the ex-official did not explain Arakhamia's motives for supporting Shmyhal.

Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, advises against overestimating Arakhamia's influence on personnel matters, noting that in such decisions, No. 1 is Zelenskyy, and No. 2 is Yermak.

Nonetheless, a representative from Zelenskyy's circle confirmed to NV that Arakhamia indeed supports Shmyhal. The reason is simple—they are friends and support each other.

A familiar partner and the ideal boss

Another important characteristic that keeps Shmyhal in office is his constant contact with Western allies, which has made him one of the guarantors of Ukraine's commitments.

This involves a whole range of crucial issues—from securing financial aid from the U.S., the EU, and G7, and cooperation with the IMF, to ensuring a favorable energy outlook for winter, and even arms production.

As one senior member of the Servant of the People faction explained to NV off the record, Shmyhal serves as a bearer of institutional memory for Ukraine's commitments to international partners. "Partners still see certain obligations on the part of the prime minister, and he ensures they are met," the source added.

Moreover, another factor contributing to the prime minister's resilience is his effective work within the main government office.

A former government official who recently worked with the head of the Cabinet described Shmyhal, on condition of anonymity, as an "emotionally steady" and systematic person. He said the prime minister assesses situations adequately, knows how to listen, balance, and avoids abrupt actions. However, the lack of "radicalism" in Shmyhal's decisions and reforms is, according to this former minister, a downside of his leadership, as "war is the best time for reforms."

One member of the president's team believes Shmyhal managed to "take control of everything procedural and organizational," forcing ministers to respect him.

"Some ministers pretend to obey, while others genuinely do," the source told NV. "They perceive him as the first among equals. They treat him with respect, understanding that he ensures their effective functioning."

Even new ministry heads see Shmyhal as a more influential figure than their more experienced predecessors did.

"He has fairly balanced relations with the ministers," recalled one former official in a conversation with NV. "I wouldn't call them friendly or unfriendly. 'Balanced' is a good word. On one hand, he kept his distance, but on the other, there was no problem communicating with him. That's one of his strengths."

However, MP Zhelezniak believes ministers follow Shmyhal only because they understand that the center of decision-making lies "somewhere else." "Not on the sixth floor of the government," the Holos representative clarified with a hint.

A compliant executor

When discussing Shmyhal's key characteristic of success, all the NV sources agreed that it is his almost perfect integration into Zelenskyy’s power structure. This quality of Shmyhal's has several facets.

"Shmyhal understood the entire system in which he works and found a way to be effective, productive, and successful without building his own political career," an influential member of the president's team explained to NV on condition of anonymity. "And he's not a target of any public media attacks." Such issues, the source noted, had hindered many previous prime ministers.

Within the president's team, they privately admit that Shmyhal primarily serves as a moderator in the government. As one of Zelenskyy’s associates explained to NV: "He doesn’t assign tasks to ministers—obviously, that’s done in a different office... But he knows these goals, keeps them in focus, and works on them. This is the role of a manager, like a CEO."

Therefore, according to this source, the current head of government is the "ideal prime minister" for the existing power system.

Zhelezniak also emphasized Shmyhal's political "invisibility" as a crucial quality in this situation. "I think this is the secret to his political survival," the Holos representative reflected.

An NV source within the Servant of the People faction agreed with this assessment: "We've seen that whenever any minister stood out a bit—like [former Foreign Minister Dmytro] Kuleba—it inevitably ended in personnel changes."

Summarizing the conversation about Shmyhal, political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko described him as a "workhorse without political ambitions." In the analyst’s opinion, the prime minister has become not the head of the government, but its coordinator.

Fesenko clarified that the war and martial law effectively prohibit the complete resignation of the government. However, in the current power distribution, the President's Office can change this rule if it wishes. Thus, only Shmyhal’s personal qualities contribute to his resilience.

"The President's Office is effectively the political government, while the Cabinet of Ministers acts as an executive body carrying out political decisions made in the President's Office," Fesenko explained. "In reality, most presidents strive for exactly this model, like the one we have now. And Shmyhal also doesn't show any political ambitions—which is why he’s managed to stay in office for so long."