ISW rejects Putin's claim of full capture of Kostiantynivka

Analysts examined statements made by Putin during a late-night July 3 meeting with Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and other senior Russian commanders. Putin claimed Russian forces had captured Kostiantynivka and made exaggerated assertions about advances along the entire front line.

According to the ISW, Russian forces have achieved tactical gains in Kostiantynivka in recent weeks, but their presence in the city remains limited to small sabotage and reconnaissance groups, while Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions there.

Ukrainian military sources said between 100 and 250 Russian troops were operating in Kostiantynivka as of mid-June, and that Ukrainian forces still outnumbered Russian troops in the city as of June 23.

ISW said Putin, Gerasimov and other senior Russian officials have exaggerated Russian battlefield "successes" at least once a month since January 2026 during propaganda briefings as part of a broader cognitive warfare campaign. The statements are intended to convince Western audiences that Russian forces are capable of making rapid advances. However, according to ISW, Russian advances slowed significantly in June compared with last year, and the 2026 spring-summer offensive failed to produce operationally significant results.

ISW assessed that Putin likely staged the meeting with senior commanders in part to influence Western media coverage ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday on July 4. The Kremlin is already attempting to capitalize on the claimed "capture" of Kostiantynivka as an information victory and will likely continue doing so in the coming weeks, the analysis said.

Situation in Kostiantynivka

On June 10, ISW said Russian forces had failed to achieve their objective of capturing Kostiantynivka by May, although they had made some tactical gains around the city.

On June 13, hromadske reported that about 100 Russian troops had infiltrated Kostiantynivka, including its city center. One Ukrainian commander told the outlet that "losing Kostiantynivka by the end of the summer is entirely possible."

Later, Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Bakulin, commander of Ukraine's 19th Army Corps, confirmed that about 130 Russian servicemen had infiltrated the city. He said their positions remained under constant surveillance.

On June 23, acting deputy commander of the 19th Corps Yurii Madyar said Ukrainian forces were clearing Russian troops from Kostiantynivka's urban areas. He added that Russian forces continued to pressure the city with small infantry groups, although the intensity of attacks had decreased.