Stephen Blank: Trump’s peace plan is doomed — and Zelenskyy must mirror Putin’s tactic

On Dec. 2, Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow for a meeting with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. They brought with them a 20-point peace proposal that had previously been coordinated between Ukrainian and American delegations during negotiations in Florida and Geneva. Neither side has disclosed the contents of the document, but it appears to be a revised version of the earlier 28-point draft prepared by Witkoff, Kushner, and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance — a version widely viewed as openly pro-Russian. According to sources, White House representatives pressured President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s team to accept it.

The updated draft also contains difficult provisions for Ukraine. According to CNN, it may include a de facto prohibition on Ukraine joining NATO, while omitting Russia’s demand that Kyiv recognize the Kremlin’s “rights” to Crimea and hand over all territory in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, including areas still under Ukrainian control.

As Axios journalist Barak Ravid reported, Witkoff and Kushner may meet with Zelenskyy on Dec. 3 to brief him on the results of their Moscow “tour.”

Do these initiatives from Trump’s team stand any realistic chance of becoming a genuine peace plan? And who are the people in the White House now attempting to shape Ukraine’s future? Nataliia Rop, an NV English correspondent in Europe, spoke with Dr. Stephen Blank — a former CIA consultant and former U.S. Army War College professor who is now one of America’s most incisive experts on Kremlin policy.

— The Ukrainian delegation has already met with the American side regarding the peace plan. Do you have a sense that an agreement to end the war could be reached this week?

— No. Putin will do his song and dance and say they need to “eliminate root causes,” and so on. And he’ll try to pocket whatever concessions have already been made and offer all kinds of financial deals. But he will not accept this as a basis for negotiation, because if Ukraine remains a sovereign state, Russia loses. The point of the war for Russia is to destroy Ukrainian sovereignty. If that cannot be achieved through negotiations, then, as Putin has said, they will “fight to the last Ukrainian.”

That’s the first point.

Second, I have no faith in any of these people’s competence. I think Witkoff is just looking to make a deal for money. Kushner, probably too. [ U.S. State Secretary] Rubio, I think, is better. But I don’t believe he has the power to force Putin to accept these terms. And what’s more, neither Europe nor the United States are going to do anything to support Ukraine if Putin refuses. We’re not going to increase weapons shipments. The Europeans are at the limit of their capability. There are individual governments in Europe willing to help, but as Bismarck said 150 years ago, there is no such thing as Europe beyond the geographical sense. So you have Poland and the Baltic states, and now Sweden and Finland — they will support Ukraine as much as they can. The U.K. will too, but the U.K. has nothing to offer. Their army is completely decrepit. France is limited in what it can do. Germany is not there yet. The rest of them — nothing significant.

Now, Ukraine can do a lot on its own, but it needs what America can offer. And the United States under Trump — Trump has no idea what he wants to accomplish in Europe, what European security even is, or how to achieve anything. He wants to stop the fighting. Well, that’s fine. But his idea of stopping the fighting is: “Give it all to Vladimir Putin and we’ll make a deal.” And that’s not good.

— Why do you think Trump decided to send Witkoff as his representative?

— He likes Witkoff. Witkoff is an idiot. I grew up in New York, so people in New York real estate are supposed to be smart. Witkoff may be smart about real estate, but he’s not smart about any of this. He doesn’t understand anything. You need people who know Russia and the Russians to negotiate with them — not an amateur. Every time he goes, he sells out something. And Trump is no better. Now Rubio — Rubio may be smarter, but he’s not an expert on Russia.

I mean, we’ve destroyed the expertise on Russia here. So you have three people going whose main objective is to make a deal, not to advance American interests.

— Is there any way this plan could be turned into a real agreement that ensures peace, rather than simply helping Russia achieve its military goals?

— Well, to be fair, we haven’t seen the new plan. Nobody knows what’s in it — for once. My personal opinion is that the Russians will not agree to anything other than victory, which means they get Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and the Donbas. And Zelensky goes, there are new elections, a pro-Russian government comes in, and Ukraine is destroyed. I don’t think Putin will accept anything less. I don’t think he can accept anything less after everything he has sacrificed up to this point.

Quite frankly, I believe the only Western solution is a victory over Russia and Ukraine in NATO. What we’ve seen now is that there is no security for Ukraine unless it is in NATO. And if the Russians don’t like it because they think they’re a great power and an empire — those days are over, and they need to come to terms with that. It’s going to be very difficult. But it has to happen for their own good, because otherwise they will be at war permanently with everyone around them. I’ve written this: there is no concept of European security that anyone can devise that is compatible with the idea of a Russian empire. None. That means permanent war. Nobody benefits from permanent war except Putin and his Duma. It’s very simple when you put it that way.

So what has to be done? That means giving Ukraine the weapons, tightening sanctions on Russia, building up European and American defense industries, and supporting Ukraine financially and diplomatically. None of this is beyond our capabilities. It’s all a fantasy these idiots believe. And what’s more, if we defeat Russia, the Chinese will understand that they can’t play their games either.

— What do you think Trump’s next steps might be once he realizes this peace deal cannot be reached?

— He’ll try to wash his hands of the whole affair. He doesn't understand… I mean, ten months — how long does it take to understand what Vladimir Putin is up to? I used to be a college professor; my students weren’t that dumb.

It’s obvious. Putin gets up there and says it clearly. He says: We will only reach a solution if the root causes of this problem are addressed — and the root cause is Ukraine’s existence as an independent state. If NATO retreats to 1995, which won’t happen… This is a fantasy. It’s like a movie. How dumb can you be?

But they want to make a deal. That’s all. He wants his Nobel Peace Prize. He doesn’t care about the terms. He doesn’t understand anything about European security. Witkoff certainly doesn’t. I don’t think Kushner does either. And Rubio will be overmatched. And I don’t think they’ll get anywhere.

And if they do sign a peace treaty, it won’t be worth the paper it’s written on unless Ukraine gets NATO membership. There’s only one security guarantee that means anything. All this talk about “finding an alternative” — I’m sorry, but the only guarantee that works is NATO.

I’m the child of immigrants who fled Eastern Europe in the 1920s and 30s. So I know what security guarantees for Eastern European states are worth. NATO, on the other hand, is truly credible. And if the Russians can’t accept that, too bad. The Russian empire is over. They have to learn to live with that. Otherwise, they’re going to be permanently at war. For their own benefit, they have to learn that empire is over — and maybe autocracy will go with it. That’s the only chance we have to get peace from Russia.

I’m not saying this because I don’t know what I’m talking about. I used to teach Russian history. I have a Ph.D. in Russian history. I’ve been working in this field for 50 years. Empire in Russia is not compatible with European security — period. And that means not compatible with American security. It means permanent war.

And that’s not a question of Putin — it’s empire. Whoever comes after Putin, if he thinks it’s going to continue the same way — no, it won’t work. They have to be beaten.

— Do you think Russia will attack a NATO member in the next few years?

— They’re already doing it.

— Do you mean Russian drones over Poland?

— Well, drones are one tactic. Destroying cables, assassinations, arson, subversion, influence operations, trying to sway elections in the Balkans, corruption, energy blackmail, cyberwar, disinformation. I mean, that’s war. I have an essay coming out that says exactly that. It’s not “hybrid war”; it’s war. And it’s what Clausewitz said: it’s an attempt to force the other side to do Russia’s will. The nature of force has changed, but it’s still the same thing.

— How long could it take for Russia to send troops into NATO countries?

— Well, that depends on the country involved. Obviously, they’re not going to attack France. But they could be in the Baltic states tomorrow if they wanted to. That has always been the case. I’m not saying anything new.

There are several intelligence and military leaders — in the U.K., the Netherlands, Germany, France, Poland, and the Baltic states — who have all said the same thing: the Russians are either already at war or will be ready for a major war within two to ten years, depending on the assessment.

— What happens if Trump washes his hands of the deal and Ukraine loses the United States as its strategic partner?

— Well, the Russians will have a great victory, because they will think they’ve neutralized NATO — at least for the rest of Trump’s term. What happens after 2028, nobody knows.

But I think the Europeans will step up because they will have no choice but to defend Ukraine. England, France, Germany — and of course Sweden, Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states.

— Bloomberg has published a transcript of a telephone conversation between U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff and Putin’s chief foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov. How would you assess Witkoff’s behavior from a diplomatic perspective?

— Amateur. One word. Incompetent. He has no business being a diplomat. He should go back to New York and do real estate. We have people who have been trained to negotiate with Russians. They’ve done it. They have the expertise. They would gladly serve the United States if they were asked. They would teach others how to do it. None of these three people has that expertise. Now, Rubio seems better. But Witkoff and Kushner — all they care about is money and making Trump look good. And that’s not the answer.

— What red lines must the Ukrainian delegation define in this peace negotiation process?

— Sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, because no Ukrainian government can give up territory and stay in power. Period. That’s the Constitution — you know that. Sovereignty, territorial integrity, the right to join NATO and the EU, free democratic elections free of outside subversion, freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, freedom for Russian minorities.

The big three — or four — are democracy, security, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Ukraine is as sovereign a state as any other in Europe. It must have security guarantees — in my view, NATO and the EU. It must have full navigation rights in the Black Sea. No limits on its military power as a sovereign state or on whom it can have military relations with. Democracy means a government of laws, rule of law, and free elections. No Russian subversion of elections — though they will try regardless of whatever treaty is signed.

— It doesn’t look like Russia will agree to any of this.

— Of course not. But the point is that they’ve lost. In two months, it will be four years. They have lost a million men — killed, wounded, or missing. Their economy has collapsed and become militarized. They depend on China, North Korea, and Iran to fight this war. They are losing influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. They’ve lost influence in the Middle East. They’ve lost the European energy market.

A recent book in English, Failure, shows that the demographic and socioeconomic conditions in Russia under Putin are a disaster. They all know that. And all they have captured is about 85% of the Donbas — and what they have captured is basically destroyed. You can’t do anything with those territories under current conditions. So they haven’t really won anything.

And I think the Ukrainian delegation just has to tell the Russians: We don’t care what you sign — we’re not going to surrender. And you must understand that you’ve lost the war. And the United States and Europe have to make that clear. This could end like World War I for Russia — like 1917–1918, when the Germans launched their final offensives, fell short, and then everything turned in late spring and summer of 1918.

Because I don’t think the Russians can win. I think the Ukrainians will fight to the last Ukrainian — and that will be far sooner than the last Russian is willing to fight.

There is enormous demoralization in Russia as well, from all available evidence. But Ukraine must have support. And if the Americans won’t support it, the Europeans must — for their own interests. Because you know as well as I do: if Russia occupies Ukraine again, the entire front from the Arctic to the Black Sea will become militarized, and we will have a permanent state of siege — a permanent war in Europe.

— But Ukraine is also not in the strongest position right now on the battlefield. Do you think, under these conditions, that Ukraine can refuse to compromise on the points in the peace plan that limit its sovereignty?

— Yeah, I understand that. And it’s very easy for me to sit here in Washington, D.C., and say this. I don’t have to live there — and won’t live with the consequences. But when the war started, I told my wife the Ukrainians would never stop fighting. And I still think so.

The Russians may think so, but the Russians are deluded about many things in Ukraine. Putin still believes he’s going to win. And he may throw another 100,000 or 500,000 men into the meat grinder and hope to win. I don’t think he will. And if he “wins,” he loses Russia’s sovereignty anyway because the country is so dependent on China now.

So Ukrainians must do what Putin does: We are prepared to negotiate with anyone, but we will not compromise on integrity, sovereignty, or security. Take the line straight from Putin — same thing — until everyone comes and says: Okay, what can we give you to get you to negotiate?

Putin is doing what the North Vietnamese did. I remember that — I’m old enough. They said: We will not negotiate until you get to the root of the issue — American troops have to leave. Eventually, American troops did leave. And the North Vietnamese got what they wanted. It took five years of war or more.

The only way this war ends satisfactorily is if Russia is defeated. Because they are trying to restore an empire and a Cold War vision of Europe. That is unsustainable — not only unsustainable, intolerable. Nobody can accept it or live with it — least of all the Russians.

— How do you think the peace negotiation process will look by the end of the year?

—  We’ll have to see what happens. As you can see, I’m not an optimist. I don’t think Putin will say: Yes, this is the basis for negotiation, Ukraine is a sovereign state, and I will negotiate with Zelenskyy. I don’t think that will ever happen.

Ukraine will have to keep fighting. Maybe Trump will wake up one morning, someone will hit him in the head, and he’ll suddenly have an answer that makes sense. But I’m not optimistic.