Russia planning provocations in Baltics or Poland to divert from Ukraine long-range strike campaign

Latvian intelligence reported that it is seeing signs that Russia is preparing military provocations against Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, or Poland. However, it will not be a full-scale invasion, the source clarified.

It added that Russia was not capable of opening a second front, but was considering “hybrid attacks, namely missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems”.

A senior NATO official confirmed that Russia is possibly preparing provocations. He stated that NATO is “picking up intelligence” that dictator Vladimir Putin was “planning something against the Baltic states”.

The possible provocations are aimed at testing NATO cohesion. Putin, according to one source, wants to test U.S. support for some of the alliance’s smallest member countries in case of a threat.

Western sources fear the threat is growing because the Kremlin is coming under pressure from Ukraine’s campaign of long-range attacks, particularly against targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Putin may therefore resort to military action against NATO's eastern flank in a desperate attempt to "roll the dice”, the article stated.

“Moscow will be looking for ways to disrupt the current trend, through horizontal escalation [spreading the conflict to other countries] or doing something elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to passively lose,” Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank Keir Giles said.

Western military source said there was concern that Russia could lash out if Putin thought he was under pressure as the war shifted deeper inside Russia, The Guardian wrote.

Latvia’s Chief of Defense Kaspars Pudāns announced in early June that Russia has gained an advantage over NATO in drone warfare and could try to use a “window of opportunity” before the end of 2028 to invade the Baltic states.

Bundeswehr Ground Forces Commander Christian Freuding stated on June 11 that Russia might attack Germany by 2029.