“In this business, even a short disruption in supply is considered an extraordinary event. When such restrictions are reported across dozens of Russian oblasts, it points to a deep systemic problem,” the expert said.
Kuiun said Ukrainian strikes have been highly precise. While Russia used dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones to disable the Kremenchuk oil refinery, Ukraine has managed to put several Russian refineries out of operation using drones alone.
According to Kuiun, the shutdown of the facilities indicates that the strikes hit the most vulnerable technological units, without which full-scale oil refining cannot continue.
Earlier, on June 1, 2026, drones carried out a large-scale attack on the Russian city of Penza, sparking a fire and heavy smoke near a bearing plant. Air raid sirens sounded after authorities declared a missile alert. Residents later reported a series of explosions, while local officials said Russian air defenses were responding to the drone attack.
On the morning of June 25, two oil refineries in Ufa, the capital of Russia's Bashkortostan about 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) from Ukraine, were struck.
On July 1, 2026, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukrainian Defense Forces had struck the Ufa refinery again, one of Russia's largest producers of lubricants located about 1,300 kilometers (810 miles) from the front line.