Ukraine strikes could leave Russia with 30% less refining capacity for 18 months, IEA says

“It now appears likely that the persistent drone strikes and the patchwork nature of repairs are having a cumulative negative effect and degrading the refining system,” Bloomberg quoted the IEA.

“Risks remain that even this more cautious assessment may yet understate the problems that Russia’s refining complex faces. Longer lead-times to source replacement parts and the approach of colder weather could compound the stress placed on the Russian system.”

According to the report, Russia’s refining industry is deteriorating because sanctions are preventing it from recovering from consistent Ukrainian drone strikes.

“It now appears likely that the persistent drone strikes and the patchwork nature of repairs are having a cumulative negative effect and degrading the refining system,” the report said.

Bloomberg estimates that Russian refineries came under at least 22 attacks in August, the highest monthly figure since the start of the full-scale war.

Drones are now hitting secondary-processing units at Russian refineries. Replacing the equipment could take approximately six to eight months, according to the IEA.

At the same time, sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector are limiting its access to replacement equipment, further complicating repairs.