The quiet rival: Why Valerii Zaluzhnyi still haunts Bankova

Is it possible to remain at the center of Ukraine’s political conversation — among pundits, sociologists, and officials — even if you no longer live in Kyiv, have never announced a presidential bid, keep your distance from any party, and rarely appear in public?

Experience suggests it is.
As long as your name is Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

The former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, now serving as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom for the past year and a half, is physically closer to Buckingham Palace, Westminster, and Downing Street than to Kyiv. Yet from offices along the capital’s central streets, government insiders still watch his every move with tension.

“Zaluzhnyi has been worrying Bankova for three years already,” one member of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s team admitted to NV on condition of anonymity.

And it’s not without reason. Visitors from Kyiv are regular guests at the Ukrainian ambassador’s London residence. Among the latest to call was Yuriy Hudymenko, a veteran and leader of the Democratic Axe political movement.

So why does Zaluzhnyi remain at the heart of such intense, if often hidden, political emotion?

The answer lies in the polls. In survey after survey measuring public sentiment, Zaluzhnyi consistently ranks No. 1 in one of the most important metrics for any politician: public trust.

The latest confirmation came in a September poll by the Socis Center for Social and Marketing Research, where Zaluzhnyi topped the list with a trust rating of 44.5%. He was followed by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR), at 30.8%, and by the incumbent president, who placed third with 25%.

Similar results appeared in an August survey by the Rating Group, where 74% of respondents said they trusted Zaluzhnyi, compared to 68% for Zelenskyy and 59% for Budanov.

Another crucial finding: if presidential elections were held today, according to the same Socis study, Zelenskyy would lead the first round with 21.2% of the vote, while Zaluzhnyi — if he decided to run — would follow closely with 19.4%. These two, and only these two, would advance to a runoff.

But in that hypothetical second round, the general would tower over his former commander-in-chief. Zaluzhnyi would receive 63.7% of the vote — nearly double Zelenskyy’s share — effectively securing himself the presidency, if only he chose to enter the race.

Such numbers, according to politicians and experts interviewed by NV, understandably irritate the President’s Officeand encourage Zelenskyy’s rivals to court Zaluzhnyi for their own projects. Analysts say that this very potential for massive public support was what led to his dismissal — and his “honorable exile” to London.

“Everyone can see his ratings,” a source close to Ukraine’s ambassador in London told NV. “That’s why there’s a line of people waiting to meet him — sponsors, political forces, and business figures, both big and small. But Zaluzhnyi is very cautious.”

So what really happens behind the walls of the London residence of Ukraine’s general-turned-diplomat — a man who could easily become one of the country’s top political players, yet chooses not to? Whose advice does he trust? What beliefs guide him?
And will he eventually decide to use those record-high approval ratings?

NV, speaking with Zaluzhnyi’s allies and critics alike, sought answers to those questions — and found a few clues.

In the spotlight

In mid-August, American freelance journalist Katie Livingston published a post on X that sent ripples through Ukraine’s political establishment. She claimed that Valerii Zaluzhnyi was “preparing to run in the presidential election — in direct opposition to Volodymyr Zelenskyy.”

Livingston alleged that the ambassador had effectively begun building a campaign and even named possible participants. She wrote that one of its organizers was Viktoria Syumar, a lawmaker from Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party; that Oksana Torop, a former BBC journalist, was managing media operations; and that Polina Lysenko, former head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation and now a deputy director at NABU, was leading “international outreach and public communications.”

“There’s no such thing as a campaign headquarters,” Torop told NV at the time, confirming only that she has served as Zaluzhnyi’s media adviser for the past six months.

Syumar also denied the American freelancer’s claims, while NABU declined to comment on what it called “unclear information from an unclear source.”

Still, according to NV’s sources, many political figures have indeed visited Zaluzhnyi in London.

Last year, for example, Andriy Yermak, the head of the Presidential Office, traveled to meet him. A source close to Zaluzhnyi told NV that Yermak hinted at the possibility of a political alliance in the future — something other members of Zelenskyy’s team have also privately acknowledged.

At the same time, two sources within European Solidarity confirmed that their party leader, Petro Poroshenko, had also visited Zaluzhnyi in London. “He met with him at least twice,” one of them said.

“But Zaluzhnyi has a firm principle: as long as the war continues, he will not go into politics,” a source close to the former commander explained. “And if he ever decides otherwise, he’ll inform them himself.”

Even so, the same source did not rule out that Zaluzhnyi “may be considering a political role and has some ideas about what that could look like.”

In February, speaking at NV’s Ukraine Changes the World forum, Zaluzhnyi said he was not ready to discuss whether he would run in postwar elections. “First, we have to achieve conditions where such questions will even make sense,” he said.

“When those conditions come,” he told NV, “then I, as a person serving in public office, will answer such questions. For now, our only task is to endure and preserve our state. After that, we can think about the rest.”

The collector of opinions and advice

On social media, Zaluzhnyi often appears in photos with his wife. And according to a commander in Ukraine’s Defense Forces who knows the former chief well, she is one of his closest informal advisers.

“She’s the one running the show there,” the officer said.

People close to Zaluzhnyi didn’t fully confirm this, but they didn’t deny it either. “She’s important to him, so of course he consults her,” one of his close associates told NV. “It’s normal for a man to listen to his wife — especially when she’s smart.”

Another insider from Zaluzhnyi’s London circle said that “first and foremost, he listens to his brothers-in-arms, the military,” though the opinions of his media adviser, Oksana Torop, also carry weight.

Torop herself told NV that Zaluzhnyi regularly speaks with a wide range of people on completely different topics.

“That’s just how he is — he listens to everyone,” she said. “The more perspectives, the better. Truth is born in that process. He listens, but he always makes his own decisions.”

Torop confirmed that Zaluzhnyi maintains good relations with many officers. She declined to name specific individuals, saying only: “His circle of military contacts is very broad. They discuss the front, the war — they consult with him.”

Two sources close to the former commander and one well-informed military insider told NV that Zaluzhnyi remains in touch with his friend, former Chief of the General Staff Serhiy Shaptala, and with former commander of Ukraine’s Joint Forces Serhiy Nayev.

His circle also includes Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, former head of the Air Assault Forces and a one-time European Solidarity lawmaker, as well as Major General (Ret.) Serhiy Kryvonos, a figure close to Poroshenko.

This winter, Kryvonos posted a selfie with Zaluzhnyi and later told Radio NV on Sept. 19: “He [Zaluzhnyi] is the only person among the opposition forces, let’s call them that, who’s seen as a leader capable of bringing Ukraine to success — to victory and major change.”

He later clarified that he doesn’t see Zaluzhnyi as part of the opposition per se, but rather as “someone who could unite our very fragmented opposition.”

Another regular interlocutor of Zaluzhnyi’s, according to NV’s sources, is Boryslav Bereza, a former lawmaker and ex-head of the Right Sector’s information department who now blogs on social media, often criticizing Zelenskyy’s team. When NV reached out to him via Facebook Messenger to discuss his relationship with Zaluzhnyi, Bereza replied briefly: “Your information is incorrect.”

According to a Defense Forces commander familiar with Zaluzhnyi, the ambassador also stays in touch with Hennadiy Butkevych, co-owner of ATB-Market and founder of BGV Group Management. A political source close to the president’s circle told NV that Butkevych, who has extensive business interests, maintains contact with many politicians.

In response to NV’s inquiry, the BGV Group Management press service denied any political relationship. “Mr. Butkevych has no political contact with Valerii Zaluzhnyi,” the company said. “Any claims about their regular communication or political influence are false.”

“As an investor and founder of BGV Group Management,” the statement continued, “Hennadiy Butkevych maintains only professional relations with state institutions, international organizations, and diplomatic missions — in the format of public events, official meetings, international forums, and industry associations.”

NV also learned that Zaluzhnyi keeps in touch with a number of political consultants, among them the already-mentioned Viktoria Syumar.

The lawmaker told NV that she had met Zaluzhnyi three times in her life — first at an event in Britain. She explained her interest in him simply: “I wanted to understand why the Ukrainian people have chosen this person, to see who he is, what to expect from him, and what makes his charisma.”

“He’s an exceptional military strategist,” she said. “He can talk about the chessboard of war for hours. His understanding runs very deep — he lives it. His assessments come from a grasp of how the war may develop.”

Syumar added that the general-turned-ambassador avoids political talk because “the war consumes all his attention — and it’s unfolding under a bad scenario.”

She believes Zaluzhnyi doesn’t need political advice. “He’s one of those people who will always do what he believes is right,” she said.

When NV asked people in Zaluzhnyi’s circle why he talks to political consultants at all if he has no plans to enter politics, they explained that it was a reaction to growing online attacks.

“He started asking for advice on how to handle such situations because he’s worried about his reputation,” one of them said.

Torop described what she called an “escalation of targeted information attacks” against her boss. “We’re seeing a rising number of bots throwing all sorts of nonsense at him,” she said. “There are also countless fake stories about Zaluzhnyi circulating on anonymous Telegram channels. Someone is clearly investing in this — someone really wants to discredit him in the public eye.”

London commentator

In the first months after his appointment to the United Kingdom, Valerii Zaluzhnyi rarely spoke to the media. But in recent months, the general has increasingly stepped out of the shadows.

At the end of September, he published a lengthy article in the Ukrainian political weekly Dzerkalo Tyzhnia (Mirror Weekly), where he outlined the reasons behind the failure of Ukraine’s 2023 summer counteroffensive during his command of the Armed Forces — admitting he still “feels its failure painfully.”

The counteroffensive, he wrote, was accompanied by “an attempt to turn such a difficult element of war into a reality show — where, first, our plans somehow found their way to Russia, and then the course of the operation was commented on in real time by all kinds of soothsayers and prophets who later ended up under sanctions or on wanted lists.”

Zaluzhnyi went on to offer a subtle critique of the Kursk operation, conceived by his successor Oleksandr Syrskyi and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Before that article appeared, however, the ambassador’s public presence had been far more informal.

On the eve of Sept. 1, Zaluzhnyi gave an interview to the podcast What’s Up with NUS? on the YouTube channel of the New Ukrainian School (NUS). Among other topics, he reflected on education, military training, and the idea that “the experience Ukraine gains from this war should become a source of pride for future generations — and form the foundation of school courses like ‘Defense of Ukraine’ and patriotic education as a whole.”

Ivanna Kobernyk, head of the civic organization Smart Education and host of the podcast, told NV that Zaluzhnyi agreed to the interview simply by responding to her Messenger request. The recording took place in Kyiv during one of the ambassadors’ meetings. It was Kobernyk’s first time meeting the general-ambassador, and she said he struck her as “a very strong, charismatic person.”

Earlier, in July, Zaluzhnyi had written a column on identity for the international “fashion bible” Vogue. The piece was accompanied by a glossy photo shoot that drew criticism from several Ukrainian opinion leaders.

Still, most of Zaluzhnyi’s social media posts focus on the war, strategy, and Western military aid for Ukraine. “He remains within the sphere that is natural and obvious to him,” political scientist Ihor Reiterovych told NV.

Reiterovych described the ambassador’s public statements as “not only analytical, but also a way of reminding the country that he’s still here.”

“For now, I wouldn’t take this as a sign that Zaluzhnyi is preparing for a presidential run,” political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, a colleague of Ihor Reiterovych, told NV. “But he’s reminding people of himself regularly — and, indirectly, he’s beginning to position himself as someone with his own views on certain sensitive issues.”

In Fesenko’s view, the Mirror Weekly article was the clearest example of that trend. “In it, the author tries to justify himself and his stance on the 2023 counteroffensive,” the analyst said. “That text, I believe, serves as indirect confirmation that the ambassador-general does, in fact, have political ambitions.”

Balancing freedom, state, and loyalty

Even political analysts struggle to say whether Valerii Zaluzhnyi has fully formed political views or a defined approach to governance.

During his time as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, however, his leadership style leaned toward a democratic model. “Zaluzhnyi managed more horizontally, while Syrskyi managed more vertically,” one commander familiar with both men previously told NV.

Analyzing Zaluzhnyi’s public statements, political scientist Ihor Reiterovych concluded that the general is clearly a liberal — and a conscious one — in terms of identity, values, and his view of government authority.

“At the same time, there’s a certain element of traditionalism in him,” Reiterovych added. “In fact, his position reflects that of most Ukrainians: on one hand, freedom; on the other, a certain role for the state, rules, and laws.”

Those close to Zaluzhnyi confirm his liberal tendencies. “When we spoke about economic issues, he said, ‘It seems to me that’s an area better left alone,’” one of his associates told NV.

By contrast, political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko believes the ambassador currently lacks a coherent political worldview. “There’s no point defining whether he’s a liberal or a conservative,” Fesenko said. “As for economic policy, I don’t think he can articulate it yet. Those decisions will be made by the people around him — the ones he trusts.”

“This [Zaluzhnyi as a presidential candidate] would be Yushchenko 2.0,” one member of Zelenskyy’s team told NV on condition of anonymity, alluding to similarities between the former general and Ukraine’s third president, Viktor Yushchenko.

People close to Zaluzhnyi see nothing wrong with that comparison. “He’s genuinely interested in security and foreign policy,” one associate explained. “According to Ukraine’s Constitution, that’s exactly what the president is supposed to focus on.”

Fesenko predicts that Zaluzhnyi will eventually decide to run for president once the war ends. “Only then,” he said, “will he begin shaping his political platform and team.”

Recalling Petro Poroshenko’s visits to London, Fesenko noted that talk of a political tandem between the two has circulated for some time. “It’s a combination that would suit Poroshenko’s interests,” he explained. “Zaluzhnyi as president, Poroshenko as prime minister — within a semi-presidential system. And it’s clear who would take the lead.”

Still, the analyst doubts Zaluzhnyi would agree to such a partnership. “I think he and his inner circle are against that kind of arrangement,” Fesenko said. “They won’t enter into a direct alliance with Poroshenko.”

In any case, it’s too early to talk about future alliances involving the general-turned-ambassador. “Right now, Zaluzhnyi won’t take part in political battles because he’s limited by his current public and professional status as Ukraine’s ambassador,” Fesenko observed. “But potentially, he can return from that post. The main thing,” he added, “is that people don’t forget about him.”