Estonian FM: Trump won’t weaken NATO’s Article 5 guarantee

3 July 2025, 03:33 PM

Exclusive

“NATO is stronger now than it has been in many years,” Tsahkna said confidently in an interview with NV shortly after emerging from a closed-door session of the summit.

Tsahkna also shared his views on what the summit means for Ukraine, how Estonia is preparing for a potential Russian assault on the Baltics, and what leverage Western countries still have over Hungary and Slovakia—two nations seen as obstructing Kyiv’s path toward EU and NATO membership.

Nataliia Rop:  Over the past few days, we have seen all of these massive strikes by Russia on Ukraine. Does this factor somehow influenced discussions during the NATO summit and its results?

Margus Tsahkna:  Yes, of course. Yesterday [June 24] we had the Ukraine Council, and everybody was talking that Putin is not interested in any kind of peace or even a ceasefire. And I think most of the members around the table of NATO, they really put this on the table, that actually Russia, at the same time we were holding the meeting, was bombing and killing the innocent civilians. And that they're more active as well on the battlefield. So it is very clear. And even today [June 25] as well, when we had the meeting with President Trump and the leaders, I think that many member states said exactly the same. And Ukraine was on the focus. It was not only about of 5% GDP spending for NATO, which is historical momentum, of course, but everybody understood why we do it, actually, why NATO is going to pay, why Europe is going to pay more. It's about Russia. And Russia is an aggressive country. So I think that Putin shows very clearly for everybody, as well for President Trump, that he's not interested in even the ceasefire, which is most important to get and then to start to negotiate the just and lasting peace. But there are no conditions from Putin's side. 

Nataliia Rop: Do you think that the result of this NATO summit is positive for Ukraine? 

Margus Tsahkna: I think so. This is positive because we had this Council with Ukraine.

It was very clear. Also, the allies promised more support to Ukraine on the European side. At least the goal is 35 billion euros worth of military support, also investments. And also many said, and Estonia, we said that Ukraine belongs to NATO. The full membership for Ukraine in NATO in the future is something that we all need. It's not only about the security guarantees to Ukraine, but it's also about our region, Europe. So Ukraine must be part of the security guarantees for us. 

Nataliia Rop: Are there any signs that Russia is preparing for aggression against the Baltic States?

Margus Tsahkna: There are lots of signs. We have lots of hybrid attacks. We have different levels of tests, in meaning already during the last more than three years. But they are all about not reaching the Article 4 or 5. But there are lots of talks about that Russia will make NATO tests somewhere in the Baltics. We don't see actually the full scale of military capabilities on the other side of our borders, because Russia is really stuck in the Ukrainian battlefield. And of course we need to talk very widely that this narrative that Putin wants to give to the world that he's going to win the war and he's very successful, this is actually fake news. Ukraine is fighting already for more than three years. And we just need to support Ukraine. And everybody understands that if Russia will be victorious, then the next will be the NATO test. 

Nataliia Rop:  Does it mean that you believe that while there is a war in Ukraine, so there won't be any Russian aggression against the Baltic States?

Margus Tsahkna: Full-scale aggression, we don't see the troops, the other side of the border. I saw the troops, and when I was the defence minister of Estonia in 2016, 2017 – 120,000 troops were ready to go within 48 hours… they're gone, they're dead, they're dead in Ukraine.

I think that actually Putin is not doing so well, as he says. He's running out of resources. But he cannot stop, because he doesn't want to have some territories of Ukraine, he wants to destroy Ukraine, he wants to get away the sovereignty, and as well, wants to say what NATO should do or not, this is something we cannot accept at all. 

Nataliia Rop: How is Estonia preparing to counter the possible Russian attack on the Baltic states? 

Margus Tsahkna: We're doing a lot, we are investing heavily already more than 20 years to our defence, next year we're going to increase our defence spending up to 5.4%, we have British troops, French troops, US troops, we have air policing missions, Portuguese are there, we have a new regional defence plans for NATO, which means that we don't let Russia into NATO territories, we will get them back in Russian territories. So we have learned a lot from Ukraine, and as well, we're going to develop our capabilities based on the experiences that Ukraine has. And I do hope in the future that Ukrainian defence industry can produce for us as well the solutions with many of our patrols and many other aspects, which is really in a way to be very efficient against Russian army. So in the future I see that we are very much connected, because this experience Ukraine only has, not us, happily yet. 

Nataliia Rop: Is Estonia ready to block Russian tankers sailing through the Baltic Sea, and under which conditions?

Margus Tsahkna:  This is the question about the International Free Seas Convention, so the free seas we cannot block them, of course. But we are checking all the Shadow Fleet vessels about the insurance and papers and the flags, so we're doing a lot, but we are not doing it alone, we're doing it together with the Council of the Baltic Sea and other countries, also we have a NATO mission on the Baltic Sea, Baltic Sentry, but of course the Shadow Fleet is something that is very dangerous, it's supporting of course Russian war machine, but I see as well that Russia is deeply concerned, because they showed as well a month ago that they are ready to use the military force, they were protecting the Shadow Fleet vessel Jaguar with the fighter jet, which was entering as well to the NATO base place, so this is something new. But the blocking, it's not the case to block, but the case is that we don't let the Shadow Fleet vessels.

Nataliia Rop: What do you think about Trump's interpretation of Article 5? 

Margus Tsahkna: I just came from the meeting [NATO Summit in The Hague] where Trump said very clearly that the US will be committed to NATO, because he sees as well that Europe is doing more, especially our region is doing really a lot, so I'm sure that the US is in NATO, Article 5 is working, if there is a need for that. So there's lots of different interpretations, but I just came from the meeting where I had no doubts about that. 

Nataliia Rop: But if, for instance, the US decides not to participate in countering Russia, if they attack some Baltic country, is it possible that NATO can apply Article 5 without the U.S.? 

Margus Tsahkna: You know, Article 5, it's principle, it's not just like the button on the laundry machine that you're pressing it. So everybody as well as US is interested that NATO remains strong and Article 5 is one for all, all for one, it's giving this strength to US as well, so I'm not speculating what if, because I'm sure that it will work and we need to do our part and we are doing our part heavily. 

Nataliia Rop: Is there any perspective in which a smaller NATO could be created, maybe with Ukraine?

Margus Tsahkna: Smaller NATO? The Alliance is really strong and stronger than years ago, because we have now in our region Finland. which has a great military power, as well as Sweden, which has joined NATO, we have very reliable defence plans based on the experience we have seen in Ukraine. So there is no replacement for NATO, there is no need for that. And we see of course as well as a coalition of like-minded countries and we see different coalitions, but NATO is frame, and NATO is really the strongest defence organisation in the world. And now we're all going to invest more heavily, it will be even stronger. 

Nataliia Rop: Are there any leverages on Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico and Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban, so they do not interfere with EU and NATO efforts towards Ukraine?

Margus Tsahkna:  In NATO I don't see this kind of talks, now the time is not ready for the full membership of Ukraine. President Trump has said it's very clear as well. But Ukraine's path is irreversible and it was agreed already last year in Washington, so it's all there. The General Secretary Mark Rutte said it very clearly yesterday as well. 

But I'm deeply concerned about the EU decisions about enlargement, we just discussed that on Monday in the Foreign Council as well, tomorrow [June 26] our leaders are meeting on EU level, so we're pushing heavily that we need to move forward and open the clusters for Ukraine, but also Moldova and others. So this is unfortunate for the situation that Hungary is blocking, so there will be even more pressure towards Hungary to stop. 

Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Google News