Germany’s intelligence chief: Russia plotting NATO attack, doubts Article 5 commitment
Berlin has “concrete evidence” that Russia is planning an
attack on NATO territory to test the alliance’s Article 5 defense commitments,
Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service chief Bruno Kahl said on June 10,
according to The
Times.
According to Kahl, the Kremlin no longer believes NATO will
uphold its mutual defense guarantees under Article 5 and may attempt to
challenge that commitment.
“We are very confident, and we have intelligence to support
it, that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is only one step in its
advance toward the West,” Kahl said.
At the same time, he clarified that German intelligence does
not expect large tank battalions to be moved from east to west.
“We see that NATO will have to undergo a test of its
promises of mutual assistance. There are people in Moscow who do not believe
Article 5 of NATO is still valid,” the BND chief said.
Kahl warned that Moscow aims to push NATO back to its 1990s
borders, “drive” the United States out of Europe, and expand its influence by
any means.
“We must nip this in the bud,” he added.
Kahl also emphasized that NATO’s cooperation with the United
States remains stable despite occasional tensions.
“The Americans take Article 5 very seriously, but they
rightly insist that Europe must do its part,” Kahl stressed.
In December 2024, Finnish outlet Iltalehti reported that
NATO believed Russia had rehearsed attacks on Finland, the Baltic states —
particularly Estonia — and Norway, and has not abandoned plans to carry them
out.
In March 2025, German intelligence reported that Russian
dictator Vladimir Putin was preparing for a major war with NATO before the end
of the decade.
Later, German media reported that in September, the
Bundeswehr will conduct large-scale exercises to rehearse responses in the
event of a Russian attack on NATO countries.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW),
Western security services believe Russia is preparing for a prolonged
confrontation with NATO. Analysts have warned that Russia could launch military
operations against alliance members before 2030.
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