Reserve colonel and military expert comments on Russian IL-76 crash

24 January 2024, 06:56 PM

It is unlikely that POWs would be transported on aircraft like the Il-76 that crashed today, according to Ukrainian Armed Forces reserve colonel and military expert Roman Svitan in an interview with Radio NV.

For one thing, Il-76 planes are not likely to be used specifically to transport prisoners of war under comfortable conditions, said Svitan

Furthermore, a plane carrying dozens of servicemen, even POWs, poses a significant risk of being hijacked by captives. There is a substantial chance that captive soldiers could force pilots to divert to Ukraine, just a few dozen kilometers away from the border.

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Consequently, POWs are not transported by planes, but mostly in "teplushkas," which are closed wagons typically used for transporting cattle or goods with minimal equipment. 

“This is how prisoners are transported,” Svitan said. 

“They make a hole in the floor - it's called a toilet. They put them in the wagons like cattle. It's closed on all sides. This is how these inhuman people treat our prisoners”

One exception, according to Svitan, would be if the Russians “have a specific plan, let's say, to load the plane with POWs and shoot it down with an S-300 missile and then blame it all on the Ukrainian armed forces.”

“We have seen similar scenarios before, like the elimination of Wagner PMC leader Prigozhin. They loaded the plane, claimed Prigozhin was on board, and then shot it down.”

One reason for such a ploy would be to “load the plane with our prisoners or the bodies of those who were tortured in captivity,” Svitan continued.

“I know how the Russians torture, I know what it. So I understand perfectly that in order to hide the traces of torture, they might have solved this problem in this way.”

He says that the videos make it clear that the jet was downed by an S-300, leaving open the question of who fired the missile. 

However, Svitan pointed out that “Russian S-300s could have shot down this plane. Our S-300s would not have been able to reach it in terms of range.”

Other anti-aircraft weapons in Ukraine’s arsenal are also unlikely candidates.

“The IRIS/T [air defense system] certainly would be able to hit – that’s 40 kilometers, an unrealistic range for that weapon,” he said. 

“It is too complicated an operation for us to use Patriots. There could be a question about Patriot. There is definitely a possibility - technically, theoretically. We could hide it somehow, to bring it up to the border. But it is not practical to risk it. To risk a Patriot for an A-50 attack is possible. But to risk it for an Il-76 is not.”

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