Trump and Harris neck-and-neck as economy drives voter concerns
As the U.S. gears up for its next presidential election, a tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has Americans divided over their country’s future. The latest polls indicate the two candidates are nearly tied, with Trump leading slightly with 48.5% of the vote and Harris close behind at 48%.
Eight years ago, Guy Lynn, a resident of Brown Valley, California, voted for Trump. This year, he plans to do the same. “When Trump was president, we had control over our borders, no new wars, and a strong economy. Gas was $2 a gallon back then; now, it’s over $4. The cost of living is through the roof, and prices keep going up weekly,” he says, citing food, rent, and health insurance as major concerns.
According to David Hopkins, an associate professor of political science at Boston College, this election will likely be a nail-biter, focusing on five or six swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia. “Both Trump and Harris are focusing their campaigns on these battlegrounds,” Hopkins notes, referring to the competitive states where either candidate could potentially win.
Contrasting Visions for America
While Trump promises to address inflation, expand fossil fuel production, and reverse green energy policies from the Biden administration, Harris pitches a vision of change. With promises of “a new way forward,” she has managed to capture the Democratic call for transformation—a role typically reserved for the opposition. Though some analysts argue Harris lacks specifics, she has pledged to continue many of Biden’s policies, with a special focus on bolstering the economy.
For Monica McDermott, a political science professor at Fordham University, this election feels critical. “Many experts see this election as a turning point for American democracy, but it’s unclear how much the American people share that view. Voter turnout on November 5 will tell the story,” she explains.
Harris’s entry has energized the Democratic base, possibly encouraging stronger voter turnout. Similarly, die-hard Trump supporters are almost guaranteed to show up at the polls. “The real question for other Republicans is whether they’re determined enough to avoid another four years under a Democratic administration,” McDermott adds.
Key issues in the 2024 election
For many Americans, inflation and rising costs remain top concerns. Lynn, who lives with his wife Jamie and relies on her small beading business for income, is deeply dissatisfied with the state of the economy. “Groceries have gone up 38% since the start of the year, so we cut meat from our diet and are growing our own fruits and vegetables,” Jamie says.
Lowell Boulet, an artist from Detroit, shares their concerns but plans to vote for Harris. He supports reforming the current tax system, which he believes disproportionately benefits high earners. “Exempting earnings between $168,600 and $500,000 from payroll taxes could help fund Social Security,” Boulet suggests.
While the U.S. economy rebounded after the pandemic, bringing low unemployment and rising wages, inflation and high interest rates have complicated the situation, undermining Biden’s economic messaging. Still, McDermott believes Harris has a chance to turn this around if she can effectively communicate these changes.
Harris has promised to address high costs from day one, including raising taxes on Americans earning over $400,000 and expanding support for working families. Meanwhile, Trump has pledged to return to his 2017-2021 policies of tax cuts and deregulation, with added measures to reduce inflation and tighten immigration.
Deepening polarization
Despite inflation’s importance, this election’s outcome may hinge on political identity rather than specific issues. Miles Coleman, an elections analyst at the University of Virginia, attributes this to deepening political polarization. “A large chunk of voters are committed to one party or the other, no matter what,” he says.
According to polling data, Trump has a solid base among white, older, working-class voters, while Harris enjoys stronger support from women, younger voters, and communities of color. These divides underscore the polarized landscape and raise the stakes in battleground regions.
In a politically divided America, national security and foreign policy often take a backseat to domestic issues, despite ongoing conflicts and global tensions. Nevertheless, the election’s outcome could significantly shape U.S. foreign policy, especially regarding support for Ukraine. While Harris would likely continue Biden’s internationalist stance, Trump’s isolationist leanings could mean reduced support for America’s traditional allies, including NATO.
Looking Ahead
With the stakes as high as ever, the November 5 election could be a defining moment for U.S. foreign relations and domestic policy alike. As Lynn reflects, “This is about democracy and where we’re headed as a country.”
With global implications on the line, the choices Americans make at the polls will set the tone for America’s future on the world stage.
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