Russians worried over vulnerability of defense lines as Ukrainian forces press south — ISW
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The advance of Ukrainian forces in the eastern and western parts of Zaporizhzhya Oblast has sparked concern among Russians, who acknowledge the vulnerability of their defense lines, reads a report from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) of Aug. 29.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhya Oblast on Aug. 29. Geolocated footage published on that day indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced south of Bakhmut and about five kilometers southeast of Robotyne.
The Ukrainian military’s General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhzhya Oblast) directions. Ukrainian forces continued to secure positions in Robotyne and are demining the area, Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun said on Aug. 28.
He said that Ukrainian forces could bring more troops to the Robotyne area and would have greater opportunities for maneuver. Robotyne is near the highway to Tokmak, an important Russian ground line of communication (GLOC), noted Shtupun. A Russian military blogger suggested that Russian forces are continuing to commit a significant number of reserves, Airborne (VDV) elements, and TOS-1 thermobaric artillery systems to the area – likely indicating that Russian forces are worried about the vulnerability of their positions in Robotyne, states ISW.
Russian sources continued to express concerns over Russian vulnerabilities in eastern and the western Zaporizhzhya Oblast. A Russian military blogger claimed that the situation near Verbove (18 kilometers southwest of Orikhiv) is “very dangerous.” Russian “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky, reportedly defending the eastern Donetsk-western Zaporizhzhya Oblast border area, claimed that Russian forces in his sector were “stretched in a long arc” along the frontline, are having difficulties transferring reserves, and lack resources.
Khodakovsky also said that Ukrainian efforts to cut off Russian transport routes would further complicate the situation. Khodakovsky’s and the “Vostok” Battalion’s complaints are likely those of tactical commanders focused on their own local issues on a sector of the front that is of lower priority to Russian theater commanders who are focusing efforts in western Zaporizhzhya.
Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers have been accusing the Russian Ministry of Defense for the fifth consecutive day of attempting to conceal concerns over the mistreatment of the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of Southern Military District (SMD) operating in occupied Kherson Oblast of Ukraine.
The persistent complaints are likely an attempt to spark command changes that may favor Russian Airborne Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, who reportedly oversees Russian forces in southern Ukraine, suggests ISW. They are likely aimed at discrediting Colonel General Oleg Makarevich, commander of the “Dnepr” Group of Forces (Kherson Oblast).
The Russian Ministry of Defense may be reverting to the more limited coverage of the war in Ukraine while attempting to censor complaints along the frontline and reports of Ukrainian advances, ISW analysts speculate. The Russian MoD recently changed its daily reporting style to reduce the daily amount of information it reports on the war. Previously, the Russian MoD issued a daily situational report that differed from the individual situational reports from the press services of each Russian grouping of forces.
The press services of each Russian grouping of forces issued text directly copied from the overall daily situational report instead of their own original reports on Aug. 29. The Russian MoD has consistently attempted to institute an information policy that would provide limited information about the frontlines throughout the war, ISW said.
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