How has the war impacted Ukraine’s population?
Ukraine's population has decreased by 10 million people, or roughly a quarter, since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, due to a massive refugee exodus, declining birth rates, and war casualties, according to Florence Bauer, head of the Eastern Europe division of the UN Population Fund, Reuters reported on Oct. 22.
Bauer explained at a press conference in Geneva that the war has significantly worsened Ukraine's already difficult demographic situation.
"The birth rate has dropped sharply, now averaging just one child per woman—one of the lowest rates in the world," Bauer said, adding that a stable population requires a birth rate of 2.1 children per woman.
An accurate count of the war's impact on Ukraine's population will only be possible once the conflict ends and a census can be conducted. Bauer emphasized that the most affected areas include regions that are nearly empty, villages where only the elderly remain, and couples unable to start families.
The largest contributor to the population decline is the 6.7 million refugees now living abroad, mostly in European countries. Military casualties have also heavily impacted Ukraine's demographic crisis.
"Exact numbers are difficult to estimate, but it's believed the death toll is in the tens of thousands," Bauer added.
Data from U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) reports show Ukraine has both the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate in the world.
According to Ukraine’s Institute of Demography and Social Studies, the population could drop to 28.9 million by 2041 and as low as 25.2 million by 2051. In October, the Ukrainian government approved a demographic development strategy through 2040.
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