Ukrainian forces' swift advance into Kursk Oblast catches Russia off guard, ISW says
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The lack of a coherent response from Russia and reports of the rapid advance of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast indicate that the Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Aug. 8.
Widespread visual and sensor transparency of the battlefield in Ukraine has prevented both Russian and Ukrainian forces from achieving operational surprise over the past year and a half, but ambiguity about operational intent can lead to operational surprise.
The report suggests that “the Kremlin will almost certainly endeavor to retake Russian territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized and stop Ukrainian activity further into Russia, as substantial Ukrainian advances within Russia would be a strategic blow” to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's efforts “to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence.”
Ukrainian troops continued their rapid advance deep into Kursk Oblast and are reportedly present in areas as far as 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy Oblast, as geolocated footage and Russian statements evidenced on Aug. 8. However, they do not appear to be in control of the entire area.
Fighting in Kursk Oblast continued about 26 kilometers from the border, with Ukrainian forces likely reaching Ivnytsia village and attempting to cut off the Sudzha-Lgov highway, Russian Telegram channel Agency claimed on Aug. 8.
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