The Times' nuclear bomb claim about Ukraine is baseless and harmful, says expert
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The recent article in The Times about Ukraine's alleged ability to develop a rudimentary nuclear weapon within a few months is an information attack, political analyst Oleksiy Koshel said during an interview with Radio NV on Nov. 14.
Oleksiy Koshel
First of all, this is an extremely bad story for us – the very fact that such publications appeared.
Let's imagine that this really happened, and that one of the NGOs, one of the think tanks, developed such an analytical note [as stated in The Times article]. We can count, if not hundreds, then dozens of more or less well-known think tanks that could theoretically do this in Ukraine. There are also expert non-governmental organizations that specialize in a particular topic. There are also dozens of different centers with recognizable leaders, but no staff, no employees, no other things. In other words, we are talking about hundreds of structures that could theoretically write something.
There is no evidence that this document was considered by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense or the Ukrainian General Staff, that this document was handed over to the Office of the President or the National Security [and Defense] Council, that this document was used. So it's just an analytical note that could have been submitted, that could have been not submitted, that could have been sent by e-mail, perhaps on behalf of someone.
I really do not like the appearance of this publication, because it is based simply on the assumption that one of the NGOs sent its vision of the situation. A huge sensation was constructed from this in detail. Moreover, with details, and these details do not fit into journalistic logic, but rather into political technology. These details that Ukraine could launch a bomb, it was even mentioned [that it would be] similar to the Fat Man bomb that was dropped on Nagasaki in 1945...
I'm sorry, I studied history well, I remember that a huge team worked on these two bombs – Fat Man and Little Boy – for many years to develop them, in the ‘40s $2 billion were invested in the work of this team, which is the same as about $30-40 billion now. And a team of 12 Nobel laureates worked on the creation of these weapons.
Can Ukraine now repeat it, create such a weapon in a short period of time, as The Times points out? I have deep doubts, you don't need to be an expert in nuclear energy or nuclear weapons.
That is, this publication, despite everything, has such a tangible shade of artificiality in order to create a sensation. And the collective West is extremely vulnerable to such information, because the system of deterrence against nuclear weapons has been built since the late 1940s. The issue of non-proliferation of [nuclear] weapons, non-proliferation of technology, the issue of nuclear arms control is an extremely large system.
And the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty dates back to the late ‘60s. It is still in force today. In a democratic world, the only discussion that can go on is how to make this treaty more effective, how to update it, how to influence Russia.
And here comes this sensational leak of information: a new threat, new details. Now, I don't want to speak in the language of speculation as to who might be behind this, why this leak appeared, whether it was artificially provoked or not. But this story is, first of all, unpleasant for us. And it is extremely good that the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reacted sharply and extremely quickly, because we need to get clear right away.
I think that the Ukrainian authorities still need a certain multi-pronged approach, a few further steps to repel this very unpleasant attack. Perhaps by inviting IAEA experts to visit certain Ukrainian facilities. Perhaps other steps. But we need to put an end to this information attack now and repel it. I am convinced that we must consider this as an information attack.
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