Putin spoke about his plans. What awaits Ukraine and Russia
Putin's logic is actually very simple, and, by and large, he never hid it.
About the information thrown about in Western media as a point of view, as an assumption - in Russian telegram channels and Ukrainian ones - supposedly Russia is going to end the war, supposedly Russia is going to negotiate - I will frankly state what I think.
From my point of view, the logic of Putin's actions, the logic of the actions of the Russian authorities, the Russian aggressors, is such that I have never even seen a hint that they will negotiate something. And actually, what Putin voiced at the economic forum in St. Petersburg only confirms this.
Putin's logic is actually very simple, and by and large, he never hid it: he needs Ukraine as a subordinate territory. He wanted a simple and, as he thought, easy option for himself, namely the physical capture of part of the territory, the overthrow of the current government, and the establishment of a controlled regime - but this did not happen. He is playing the long game and does not hide it.
His position is as follows: Russia is a large country with more significant mobilization resources and a larger economy that has adapted to sanctions one way or another. There are no serious internal coups, riots, or resistance in Russia. Even those who oppose this war still quietly keep their opinions to themselves and remain silent. Consequently, he is prepared to win in the long run, believing that a prolonged war will sooner or later bleed our economy, weaken our armed forces, and instill fatigue among Ukrainians and weariness towards Ukraine in the West. In other words, he is willing to bloody and weaken Ukraine enough to impose his will and force some agreement that will be signed on his terms. He certainly does not today believe in the possibility of capturing all of Ukraine or even a significant part of it, but he hopes to win in this way eventually. He radiates confidence that this is how it will go.
Ukrainian offensive operation has dramatically encouraged him
Furthermore, I noticed why he started making statements recently, as he rarely and reluctantly comments on the war. As far as I understand, an unfavorable development in the , so he allowed himself to express this confidence publicly. In my opinion, Putin's logic has not changed since April of last year. He is convinced that he will win this war, he will win it in the long term, sooner or later, and he is ready to fight for years, if necessary. That's his logic. Overall, what he said confirms these ideas and their logic. Whether Putin is right here - no one knows the answer to this question. If we purely consider mathematical criteria, we have to look at the number of weapons and equipment, the scale of the Russian economy, even despite the sanctions, Russian mobilization resources, the territory, the reserves of natural resources, and so on and so forth. It is clear that the war between Russia and Ukraine is arithmetically advantageous for Russia. But this war has been ongoing for 16 months, and Russia has no significant territorial gains. It suffers losses greater than those of Ukrainians, although we also feel substantial losses. That is why it is challenging to approach it very linearly and arithmetically.
When the first package of sanctions was introduced, the most discussed issue was how quickly the Russian economy would fall. Only a few experts said it would not be clear how they would start working until February-March of 2023. Sanctions only started working, more or less effectively, very recently. But now, the gaps are already visible, and it is still being determined how they will undermine Russia's strength in the medium and long term.
I will give a simple example. At this economic forum, Putin talked for a very long and lively time about the advantages of the Russian economy and the achievements of the Russian economy. He gave an obvious example from his point of view - almost a record-low unemployment rate in Russia; this is an excellent argument in favor of the fact that the Russian economy is alive, Putin said. Partly he is right, they really do have an almost record-low unemployment rate, but there is a reverse side to this fact. Because when part of the people left, part died, and part was mobilized, it is clear that unemployment is low in an unnatural way. But, according to experts, at least 35%, i.e., more than a third of Russian enterprises (this applies to light industry, heavy, processing, military, any), have a massive shortage of specialists.
This applies not only to industry, so to speak, their foolish Tasty and Point, which they created instead of McDonald's, even they need more people due to migration and mobilization. They will have to violate their own rules, change legislation and hire migrants without passports and students under the age of 15 because they don't have enough workers.
And so you can talk about any other criteria and indicators. On the one hand, Russia has learned to bypass sanctions and survive under sanctions. Its financial system has proven to be flexible enough and endures. But it is challenging to say how long this will last and whether it will withstand further sanctions or adapt to more complex challenges.
Today Russia's biggest problem, apart from the shortage of workers, is the lack of equipment. Russia does not produce machines or presses for anything; it simply does not manufacture them. And this means that they will have problems with making anything. They get out of the situation through third parties, through third countries, buying used devices, machines, and presses. But in the long run, it is unlikely to work. Then they have to develop new markets, which is a very long and complex process. Russia needed decades to master the European market, and she lost it in a few months.
And now, to fully replace this piece of the economy in Asia, Africa, or Latin America, they will need time, experts, of which they do not have enough, and money, which they lack. They have it, but not enough to constantly offer discounts on different products. All of these are very difficult processes. Talking about whether Putin is right or wrong, he has such logic. He believes that he can win in the long run, and we believe that he will lose in the long run. Here is the crucial moment: provided that our partners' support does not decrease, but increases. This is already a challenge for them, sorry, not for me to judge how they will respond to this challenge. Is Ukraine ready for a long game? So far, all objective and subjective indicators, despite all the huge losses we have suffered and continue to suffer. Unfortunately, the war has not ended yet, and this is a huge blow not only to the armed forces, but to the economy, infrastructure, financial system, and our citizens' psychological and physical health. Many predicted that the fatigue from the war would be felt by Ukrainian society, elites, and armed forces somewhere at the end of last year.
For now, if we are talking about any objective markers, more or less accessible indicators, it seems that Ukrainian society, Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the Ukrainian authorities are ready to fight for a long time. But we have yet to determine how we will live on and what challenges and threats are still waiting for us. Today it is possible to talk about the fact that the mood of Ukrainian society, the intention of Ukrainian society, and the forces of Ukrainian society are sufficient to prepare and adapt to the war, which, unfortunately, may last a long time.
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