Forget diplomacy—Trump is turning Ukraine into a business deal
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin may have little in common—except that Donald Trump loves to keep both guessing. His unpredictable rhetoric on Ukraine has alarmed Europe, but what if it’s just another negotiating tactic in a long, messy game?
Some observers argue that his dismissive posture toward Ukraine and his apparent willingness to echo Russian talking points are not signs of abandonment but rather a calculated maneuver to reshape the dynamics of the war. If Trump’s past business strategies offer any clues, this could be an attempt at leverage—creating the illusion of disengagement while ultimately forcing a deal on his own terms.
The Art of the (Ukraine) Deal?
Trump’s first and most known book The Art of the Deal (1987) outlines his core business philosophy: think big, use leverage, maximize options, and never appear desperate. Throughout his career, he has applied these principles not just in real estate but in politics and foreign policy. His dealings with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and his trade war with China showed a pattern: public aggression followed by back-channel negotiations. Could his Ukraine stance be another example of this playbook?
One of Trump’s notable tactics is flattery as a tool of manipulation. He often praises autocrats—whether it’s Putin, Kim, or even China’s Xi Jinping—while being harsher on democratic allies. As Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw put it in recent interview with Piers Morgan:
“Trump tends to speak that way to his friends and often talks more nicely to his enemies. So, if he's talking to you like that, it still means you're his friend.”
This approach may seem counterintuitive, but it serves a strategic purpose: creating uncertainty. By downplaying U.S. support for Ukraine, Trump may be signaling to Putin that an easy victory is within reach—only to later use that perception as leverage in negotiations.
The “Raw minerals” proposal—A crude bargain or a realistic pitch?
One of the more shocking moments in Trump’s recent Ukraine discussions was the idea that Ukraine should grant the U.S. a stake in its vast mineral resources in exchange for support. The bluntness of the proposal alienated many in Kyiv, but it is in line with Trump’s long-standing philosophy that U.S. foreign policy should yield direct economic returns.
This idea may be transactional, but it is also pragmatic from the perspective of Trump’s base. His argument is simple: Biden’s administration spent billions supporting Ukraine with no direct return on investment. Trump, in contrast, wants to frame aid as a deal that benefits the U.S.—a message that resonates with his “America First” supporters.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics, warns that Trump’s approach should not be taken at face value:
“Not everything that’s happening should be taken at face value. This is a show, a performance. Politics is always theater, especially in the beginning. Trump is simply trying to shake things up and figure out his next move.”
If Trump is following his usual tactics, this could mean that his initial rhetoric—however extreme—is designed to create chaos, reset expectations, and force a renegotiation of America’s role in the conflict.
A smarter Ukrainian strategy: selling Ukraine as a tech powerhouse
If Trump views foreign policy through a transactional lens, then Ukraine’s approach must shift accordingly. Instead of merely appealing for military aid, Ukrainian policymakers should sell Ukraine as a high-tech, high-value strategic asset for the U.S.
Ukraine’s war with Russia has transformed it into a global leader in military technology. From cutting-edge drone warfare to advanced cybersecurity capabilities, Ukraine’s battlefield innovations are shaping modern warfare in ways the U.S. cannot ignore. A strategic partnership between Ukraine and the U.S. in these fields could offer:
Drone and AI warfare advancements – Ukraine’s battlefield applications are among the most advanced in the world, surpassing even some Western militaries.
Cybersecurity cooperation – Ukraine has been on the frontlines of Russia’s cyberwarfare for years, developing tactics that could benefit U.S. national security.
Post-war industrial expansion – U.S. defense companies could gain access to Ukraine’s skilled workforce and technological breakthroughs.
By framing Ukraine as an investment opportunity rather than a charity case, Kyiv could align its narrative with Trump’s priorities. Boris Johnson, former UK Prime Minister, recently suggested that Europeans should stop being scandalized by Trump’s rhetoric and instead focus on how to work with him effectively. The same logic applies to Ukraine.
Can Trump’s approach actually work?
The skepticism surrounding Trump’s Ukraine rhetoric is well-founded. His unpredictable nature, isolationist tendencies, and past praise for Putin raise concerns that he may simply abandon Ukraine. However, historical precedent suggests that he is capable of dramatic reversals if it suits his interests.
“Trump might simply abandon Putin," Mylovanov notes. "He shouldn’t be underestimated in this regard—he is capable of ditching not only us and Europe but also China, Russia, and everyone else.”
In other words, Trump’s current stance does not necessarily indicate his final position. If Ukraine can reframe the conversation in a way that appeals to Trump’s transactional instincts, there is a chance that his administration could continue supporting Ukraine—but on terms radically different from those of the Biden era.
The risks of miscalculation
Of course, this strategy carries immense risks. If Trump’s rhetoric is not an act, but rather a genuine sign of disengagement, then Ukraine could face a far more difficult war effort in 2025. Unlike Biden, who prioritizes European alliances and stability, Trump’s worldview is based on individual deals rather than long-term commitments. If Ukraine fails to present itself as a strategic asset, it could be sidelined.
Furthermore, Trump’s willingness to use Ukraine as a bargaining chip in his broader geopolitical maneuvering—whether in negotiations with Russia or in trade-offs with China—makes the situation even more precarious.
Jessica Berlin, a geopolitical analyst, warns that Ukraine and Europe must learn to play by Trump’s rules:
“Cries of betrayal and moralistic criticism will get you nowhere with this White House. Learn to speak their language and start fighting back with Trump-judo—Putin does it like a pro, and guess what? It works.”
This means that Ukraine must prepare for an entirely different diplomatic game—one where deals and leverage matter more than ideals.
A cautious bet on strategy
Trump’s Ukraine policy remains a mystery. His dismissive tone, his transactional approach, and his reluctance to confront Putin raise red flags. And yet, his history suggests that what appears to be recklessness is often a calculated tactic to reshape negotiations on his terms.
For Ukraine, the path forward is clear:
Stop appealing for aid—start offering value.
Sell Ukraine’s military tech expertise as a U.S. advantage.
Frame partnerships as strategic investments rather than security obligations.
If Trump’s rhetoric is indeed a negotiation tactic, Ukraine has an opportunity to turn uncertainty into an advantage—but only if it speaks Trump’s language. The stakes are high, and Ukraine cannot afford to miscalculate.
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